How Donald Trump shrank the GOP field
How Donald Trump shrank the GOP field… The money raised so far in the ’16 race: $385 million – and at least two-thirds of it are from outside groups… Breaking down the 2ndQ fundraising reports… Obama becomes first sitting president to visit a federal prison… And Planned Parenthood has a political fight on its hands.
How Donald Trump shrank the GOP field: Yes, 17 Republicans are running for president. But the field seems much, much smaller than that – especially after the last three weeks of attention on Donald Trump. To put it simply, Trump has shrunk the Republican field. Now that won’t last; as we’ve written before, Trump’s past comments on abortion and health care will come back to bite him among GOP voters. He’ll come back down to earth, just as Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain eventually did in the 2012 race.
But RIGHT NOW, it seems as if there are just three 2016 candidates out there: Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, and Donald Trump. (Think about it: Ted Cruz, who has shown an ability to get press when he wants it, needed a Trump meeting yesterday to break through the current noise.) And if you’re Jeb, you have to love this, because it’s sucking oxygen from the rest of the field challenging you for the nomination. Realize that Scott Walker – perhaps the Republican other than Bush who’s most likely to win the GOP nomination, according to the media and pundits – announced his presidential bid this week. He, too, has been (temporarily?) Trumped.
The money raised so far in the ’16 race: $385 million: So the official second-quarter fundraising reports are in. And when you add the money the campaigns have raised (a combined $131 million), plus the Super PAC/outside money that’s been reported (a combined $254 million), we get a grand total of $385 million. So that’s one headline. But the other headline is how the Super PAC/outside group total makes up at least TWO-THIRDS of that amount – thus a tiny number of big donors are subsidizing the candidates. And looking at the numbers below, we can safely say this: About half of the candidates wouldn’t be in the 2016 contest without Super PACs and outside groups. It is one of the biggest unintended consequences of our post-Citizens United world. Now conventional fundraising still matters if you’re going to be general-election nominee (lower ad rates!), but if you just want to be in the race and stick around, all you need is a big donor or two.
What the campaigns raised in the second quarter:
- Clinton: $47.5 million
- Sanders: $15.2 million
- Bush: $11.4 million
- Cruz: $10 million (plus $4 million he raised from the last quarter)
- Rubio: $8.9 million (plus $3.2 million transfer from Senate account last quarter)
- Carson: $8.5 million (plus $1.7 million he had from the last quarter)
- Paul: $6.9 million
- Graham: $3.7 million
- Huckabee: $2.0 million
- O’Malley: $2.0 million
- Trump: $1.9 million
- Fiorina: $1.7 million
- Perry: $1.1 million
- Santorum: $608,000
- Jindal: $579,000
- Pataki: $256,000
Campaigns’ cash on hand as of June 30:
- Clinton: $28.9 million
- Sanders: $12.2 million
- Rubio: $9.9 million
- Cruz: $8.5 million
- Bush: $8.4 million
- Carson: $4.7 million
- Paul: $4.2 million
- Graham: $2.6 million
- O’Malley: $1.3 million
- Fiorina: $991,000
- Huckabee: $885,000
- Perry: $884,000
- Trump: $488,000
- Jindal: $514,000
- Santorum: $232,000
- Pataki: $208,000
The campaigns’ burn rates (what they spent this quarter divided by what they raised):
- Trump: 74%
- Carson: 64%
- Santorum: 62%
- Huckabee: 56%
- Cruz: 54%
- Perry: 52%
- Fiorina: 42%
- Paul: 40%
- Clinton: 39%
- O’Malley: 35%
- Rubio: 35%
- Graham: 30%
- Bush: 27%
- Sanders: 20%
- Pataki: 19%
- Jindal: 11%
What the Super PACs and 501c4s have raised so far (we won’t get the official reports for Super PACs until July 31):
- Right to Rise (Bush): $103 million
- Keep the Promise groups (Cruz): an estimated $37 million
- Rick Perry Super PACs: $16.8 million
- Conservative Solutions PAC (Rubio): $16 million
- Conservative Solutions Project 501c4 (Rubio): $15.8 million
- Priorities USA (Clinton): $15.6 million
- America Leads (Christie): $11 million
- American Bridge (Clinton): $7.7 million
- American Bridge 501c4 (Clinton): $1 million
- CARLY for America (Fiorina): $3.4 million
- John Kasich 527s groups: $11.5 million
- Bobby Jindal groups: $8.7 million
- Mike Huckabee groups: $6 million
What the combined amounts (campaign + outside groups) are:
- Team Jeb: $114.4 million
- Team Hillary: $71.8 million
- Team Cruz: $51 million (that includes the $4 million his campaign raised in the 1stQ)
- Team Rubio: $43.9 million
- Team Perry: $17.9 million
- Team Jindal: $9.2 million
- Team Huckabee: $8 million
- Team Fiorina: $5.1 million
Obama becomes first sitting president to visit a federal prison: Outside of the 2016 race, the biggest political story today is President Obama becoming the first sitting president to visit a federal prison. The New York Times: “When President Obama arrives at the El Reno federal prison about 30 miles west of [Oklahoma City] on Thursday, he will go where no president has gone before, literally and maybe figuratively, too. In becoming the first sitting president to visit a federal prison, Mr. Obama will showcase an emerging bipartisan drive to overhaul America’s criminal justice system in a way none of his predecessors have tried, at least not in modern times.” Criminal-justice reform has become the “IT” issue of the past year, with a tremendous amount of bipartisan support, which means it’s very possible that the next president can deliver on it.
Planned Parenthood has a political fight on its hands: Finally, we want to discuss the undercover video of the group Center for Medical Progress, which purportedly shows a Planned Parenthood official discussing the sale of aborted fetus parts. Planned Parenthood argues that the video was highly edited, and it says the video misleadingly characterizes tissue-donation programs that are used for scientific research. What’s more, the full transcript shows the Planned Parenthood official repeatedly denying that there was any policy here but covering the costs (i.e, there wasn’t a for-profit sale going on here).
Despite all of those things, Planned Parenthood has a political fight on its hands, given how fast the entire Republican Party reacted to it. In 2012, Barack Obama’s campaign made Mitt Romney’s criticism of Planned Parenthood a big selling point to Colorado and Virginia voters. But has the right found a way to ACORN-ize Planned Parenthood, even with this edited video (which was taken a year ago)? Bottom line: Planned Parenthood has a big crisis on its hands. The Congressional hearings aren’t going to be pretty.
On the trail: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, and Chris Christie are in New Hampshire… Jeb Bush is in San Francisco… And Ben Carson, Bobby Jindal, Martin O’Malley, and Rick Santorum are in Iowa.
OBAMA AGENDA: Jailhouse blues
With the first visit of a sitting president to a federal prison, President Barack Obama will focus on an overhaul of the criminal justice system today.
The Washington Post and the New York Times both look back at how the Iran deal came together.
Some analysis of Iran’s influence from the Wall Street Journal: “Today’s Islamic Republic stands isolated outside the Shiite-dominated areas, its regional standing undermined by four years of upheaval that split the Middle East along deepening sectarian lines.”
Writes Janell Ross in the in the Washington Post: “This Obama might look or sound “brand new” to some Americans. He might even sound a little something like the black president that some white Americans across the political spectrum feared (or hoped for). But to people who watch the White House closely, this is the President Obama that has been developing for some time.”
George H.W. Bush broke a bone in his neck in a fall at his summer home.
CONGRESS: Highway bill action
The Wall Street Journal: “The House easily passed a bill extending federal highway spending into December, buying time to try for a corporate-tax overhaul that could provide major new funding for the troubled program.”
House Republicans are calling for hearings about Planned Parenthood in the wake of the release of an undercover video purporting to show an official discussing an exchange of parts of aborted fetuses.
National Journal scoops that Paul Ryan is working with Democrats on welfare reform.
OFF TO THE RACES: Burn, baby, burn
The highest burn rates of 2016: Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Rick Santorum.
The AP writes on something we also noted in this publication yesterday: “GOP against Iran deal, with or without reading it”
BUSH: POLITICO looks at how Jeb Bush is preparing for facing Trump in the debates.
He’ll release the names of his bundlers.
Reuters examines how Jeb Bush is changing the political playbook by relying on his super PAC.
CLINTON: The New York Times writes that Hillary Clinton is lagging in engaging grass-roots donors.
Women represented more than 60% of her donors, msnbc.com’s Alex Seitz-Wald reports.
Labor leaders are unhappy with the American Federation of Teachers’ early endorsement of Hillary Clinton, POLITICO writes.
GRAHAM: He says: “New Hampshire is going to become my second home.”
TRUMP: He claims that he’s worth $10 billion, although he hasn’t disclosed his entire personal finance form to the public yet.
Carrie Dann and Mark Murray contributed reporting for this article.